Here’s how you can profit off of the presidential debate

With all eyes on Monday night's first presidential debate of this election, some traders are looking for ways to cash in.

Kathy Lien, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, believes that currency markets could be in store for a big shakeup. More specifically, Lien believes that the dollar-yen is in "serious risk" of falling to the downside, meaning that shorting the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen could be the trade ahead of tonight's debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

According to Lien, since 1980 U.S. stocks have traded lower the week after a presidential debate 80 percent of the time, and a repeat of a sell-off could send USD/JPY down. But on top of that, she doesn't see the market pricing in the potential of a Trump victory.

"The market is thinking that Donald Trump is going to end up sabotaging himself, and I think that's underestimating the possibility of him crushing Hillary," Lien said Monday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "If that's the case, we could see a much larger reaction in dollar-yen to the downside than to the upside," given that Lien believes a Trump win would be bearish for the U.S. currency.

Oppenheimer technician Ari Wald suggests betting on the defense sector ahead of the Monday night debate. Defense stocks are currently up more than 9 percent year-to-date, led by big names like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, which have risen over 13 percent and 15 percent this year, respectively.

In Wald's opinion, one of the best picks in the space is aerospace company General Dynamics. The stock recovered significantly from its post-Brexit slump, surging more than 16 percent since its June lows. Looking at a chart of General Dynamics, Wald points out that the stock looks set to break above what he sees is a resistance line at around $155 as it continues its rally.

"We're expecting a Q4 market rally, and we think a stock like General Dynamics should be leadership through that move. We like [the defense sector] a lot," said Wald.

Monday's debate will be watched closely as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have been neck and neck in many key states. A WSJ/NBC poll from last Thursday put Clinton with a 6 percent lead ahead of Trump nationally, but both candidates are still viewed negatively by the majority of American voters.

Annie Pei

Source : http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/26/heres-how-you-can-profit-off-of-the-presidential-debate.html

Trump hotels and casino traffic has taken a huge hit since Trump started running for president

At Foursquare, our data scientists are often called upon to analyze real world trends; we use big data to determine how commercial fortunes are rising or falling. This year, politics and business are intersecting, as one of the presidential candidates, Donald Trump, has extensive properties including casinos, hotels, and golf courses. Has his campaign been good for Trump-branded business?

We have experience tackling these types of questions with a high degree of accuracy. Based on our foot traffic intelligence covering over 50 million users a month, we predicted Apple iPhone 6s sales, a hit Q4 for McDonald's all-day breakfast, and a tough Q1 for Chipotle. Time and again, our predictions have been proven on-target once these companies announced their earnings.

Reporters have lately been asking us if our foot traffic data can shed light on visits to Trump properties, so we decided to take a closer look. To be clear, as a technology company, we're not in the game of taking a stance on political questions. But we are interested in the power of data to illuminate cultural trends. So let's look at the numbers.

Have The Donald’s politics trumped Trump businesses?

It turns out the data is fairly clear: Since Donald Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015, foot traffic to Trump-branded hotels, casinos and golf courses in the U.S. has been down. Since spring, it's fallen more. In July, Trump properties' share of visits fell 14% year over year, for instance.

(View a larger version of this chart.)

There has been an interesting arc over the last year. Before Trump announced his presidential bid, foot traffic to his properties was steady year-over-year  —  and maybe even saw a small uptick. After he entered the race, his branded properties failed to get their usual summertime traffic gains. In August 2015, the share of people coming to all Trump-branded properties was down 17% from the year before.

These losses stabilized to single digits for a number of months, but as primary voting season hit full swing in March 2016, share losses grew again. Trump properties did not get their usual springtime bounce of travelers and locals. March share was down 17% once more.

The properties that were hardest hit were the Trump SoHo, Trump International Hotel & Tower Chicago and Trump Taj Mahal, down 17–24% in raw foot traffic this past year as compared to the previous year. Incidentally, Trump Taj Mahal on Wednesday announced that it will beclosing its doors after Labor Day, citing an ongoing employee strike as the reason; our foot traffic report shows the problems ran deeper.

We also decided to look at how foot traffic might differ between "blue state" and "red state" locations. Trump properties include a number of award-winning hotels (particularly Trump International Hotel & Tower Chicago). However, his hotels, casinos, and golf courses are mainly located in reliably "blue" Democratic states, and depend highly on guests and visitors who live in the region.

(View a larger version of this chart.)

Breaking out Blue States, the loss in foot traffic runs deeper than the national average. For the past five months, Trump's blue state properties  —  spread between New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Hawaii  —  have taken a real dip, with diminishing visits starting in March and a widening gap that continues straight through July, when share fell 20% versus July 2015.

The Hillary Clinton Stock Portfolio: 15 Investments Bullish on President Clinton

If you think Hillary Clinton's headed to the White House, here's how you can bet on it through the stock market.

If you think Hillary Clinton's headed to the White House, maybe you should bet on it. That's not really possible in the United States, of course, but you can always buy stocks instead.  

We've put together a portfolio of 15 stocks experts think should do well under a Clinton presidency. So, the more it looks like she might be elected, the more lift these stocks should get. The markets have already responded to her comments on the campaign trail on more than one occasion.

Each week until the election, we'll be checking back in with the portfolio, measuring the performance of each of these investments, which, in turn, could also give us some indication of Clinton's chances. We've included a chart measuring the stock's performance since Clinton announced her candidacy on April 12, 2015. We'll continue to update the charts and our analysis of the portfolio as the campaign progresses.

HCA Holdings (HCA)

Performance since Clinton announced on April 12, 2015 through July 25, 2016, the start of the Democratic National Convention: +2.70%

HCA Holdings is a for-profit health care services company that operates hospitals and other related facilities.

Clinton has pledged to defend and build on the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare. Adjustments to make the system work better, and the possibility of more states accepting Medicaid expansion under incentives supported by Clinton, would likely benefit hospitals. This is especially true of HCA Holdings, which has numerous hospitals and surgery centers in states like Florida, Georgia and Tennessee that have thus far held out on accepting Medicaid expansion.

Aetna (AET)

Performance since Clinton announced on April 12, 2015 through July 25, 2016, the start of the Democratic National Convention: +11.63%

The company would benefit from a Clinton presidency on two fronts: in the Obamacare exchanges (which under her would likely be fixed), and in Medicare Advantage (a substitute for parts of original Medicare that is likely to expand). Especially if its planned acquisition of Humana (HUM) goes through.

SolarCity (SCTY)

Performance since Clinton announced on April 12, 2015 through July 25, 2016, the start of the Democratic National Convention: -52.84%

Clinton's campaign platform includes setting a series of national goals, including 500 million solar panels installed and generating enough renewable energy to power every home in America, to curb climate change and promote clean energy. If she were to make progress, it would mean good things for companies in solar. Elon Musk's SolarCity has already executed projects for government clients in states like Connecticut, California and Maryland.

Renewable Energy Group (REGI)

Performance since Clinton announced on April 12, 2015 through July 25, 2016, the start of the Democratic National Convention: -4.61%

Renewable Energy Group produces biofuels and develops renewable chemicals.

Clinton is a proponent of the Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires a minimum blend of biofuels in gasoline. She has also pledged to reduce American oil consumption by a third, which would almost certainly be good for biofuels. Ames, Iowa-based Renewable Energy Group could get a boost from such initiatives.

Aecom (ACM)

Performance since Clinton announced on April 12, 2015 through July 25, 2016, the start of the Democratic National Convention: +6.56%

Aecom provides professional engineering, consulting and project management services for infrastructure projects.

It pulled in more than 5,000 government contracts in 2015 valued at $2.6 billion, and if Clinton were able to boost federal infrastructure investment as much as she pledges to on the campaign trail, it might very well see that increase. The former secretary of state has said she would increase investment by $275 billion over a five-year period and create a $25 billion infrastructure bank to support critical infrastructure improvements.

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Performance since Clinton announced on April 12, 2015 through July 25, 2016, the start of the Democratic National Convention: -18.01%

Goldman Sachs has been a sore spot for Clinton the campaign trail, with her foes on both the left and the right critiquing paid speeches she gave at the firm. Even though the former first lady has said she would get tough on Wall Street in the White House, it is unlikely she would really go after Goldman and others all that hard. Moreover, the degree of certainty Clinton represents compared to her opponent, Donald Trump, might help bankers wary of market volatility sleep at night.

Walmart (WMT)

Performance since Clinton announced on April 12, 2015 through July 25, 2016, the start of the Democratic National Convention: -8.87%

Clinton has said that as president she will support raising the federal minimum wage to $12 and that where it can be raised to $15, it should be. While such a maneuver would mean many companies would have to increase wages, it would also put more money into consumers' pockets. According to an analysis from S&P Capital IQ, large retailers like Walmart and competitor Target are well-positioned to absorb wage hikes and would benefit from lower-income consumers having more to spend in their stores.