Showing posts with label Berkshire Hathaway. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Berkshire Hathaway. Show all posts

Sunday, February 26, 2017

8 Takeaways From Warren Buffett's Annual Letter To Berkshire Shareholders

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Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A)(NYSE: BRK-B) shareholders on Saturday morning.
Buffett, as usual, spent a significant portion of the letter updating shareholders on the firm's current holdings, its annualized returns and other bits of wit and wisdom.
Click here to read the full letter.
On what they accomplished:
"Berkshire’s gain in net worth during 2016 was $27.5 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 10.7%. Over the last 52 years... per-share book value has grown from $19 to $172,108, a rate of 19% compounded annually."
On what they hope to accomplish:
"Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves. Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do."
On American economic prosperity:
"Early Americans...were neither smarter nor more hard working than those people who toiled century after century before them. But those venturesome pioneers crafted a system that unleashed human potential, and their successors built upon it.
"This economic creation will deliver increasing wealth to our progeny far into the future. Yes, the build-up of wealth will be interrupted for short periods from time to time. It will not, however, be stopped. I’ll repeat what I’ve both said in the past and expect to say in future years: Babies born in America today are the luckiest crop in history."
On share repurchases:
"In the investment world, discussions about share repurchases often become heated. But I’d suggest that participants in this debate take a deep breath: Assessing the desirability of repurchases isn’t that complicated. From the standpoint of exiting shareholders, repurchases are always a plus. Though the day-to-day impact of these purchases is usually minuscule, it’s always better for a seller to have an additional buyer in the market... My suggestion: Before even discussing repurchases, a CEO and his or her Board should stand, join hands and in unison declare, “What is smart at one price is stupid at another."
On insurance, Berkshire's most important sector:
"[O]ur P/C (Property/casualty) companies have an excellent underwriting record. Berkshire has now operated at an underwriting profit for 14 consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $28 billion. That record is no accident: Disciplined risk evaluation is the daily focus of all of our insurance managers, who know that while float is valuable, its benefits can be drowned by poor underwriting results. All insurers give that message lip service. At Berkshire it is a religion, Old Testament style."
On company management:
"Charlie and I cringe when we hear analysts talk admiringly about managements who always “make the numbers.” In truth, business is too unpredictable for the numbers always to be met. Inevitably, surprises occur. When they do, a CEO whose focus is centered on Wall Street will be tempted to make up the numbers."
On Berkshire's ownership of $5 billion of preferred stock issued by Bank of America BAC 1.42%:
"This stock, which pays us $300 million per year, also carries with it a valuable warrant allowing Berkshire to purchase 700 million common shares of Bank of America for $5 billion at any time before September 2, 2021. At yearend, that privilege would have delivered us a profit of $10.5 billion. If it wishes, Berkshire can use its preferred shares to satisfy the $5 billion cost of exercising the warrant... Many of our investees, including Bank of America, have been repurchasing shares, some quite aggressively. We very much like this behavior because we believe the repurchased shares have in most cases been underpriced. (Undervaluation, after all, is why we own these positions.) When a company grows and outstanding shares shrink, good things happen for shareholders."
On investment advice:
"My regular recommendation has been a low-cost S&P 500 index fund. To their credit, my friends who possess only modest means have usually followed my suggestion. I believe, however, that none of the mega-rich individuals, institutions or pension funds has followed that same advice when I’ve given it to them. Instead, these investors politely thank me for my thoughts and depart to listen to the siren song of a high-fee manager or, in the case of many institutions, to seek out another breed of hyper-helper called a consultant. That professional, however, faces a problem....
"Long ago, a brother-in-law of mine, Homer Rogers, was a commission agent working in the Omaha stockyards. I asked him how he induced a farmer or rancher to hire him to handle the sale of their hogs or cattle to the buyers from the big four packers (Swift, Cudahy, Wilson and Armour). After all, hogs were hogs and the buyers were experts who knew to the penny how much any animal was worth. How then, I asked Homer, could any sales agent get a better result than any other? Homer gave me a pitying look and said: “Warren, it’s not how you sell ‘em, it’s how you tell ‘em.” What worked in the stockyards continues to work in Wall Street."
By Jason Shnubnell

10 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds

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For a very long-time Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been dominating the hedge fund popularity rankings. Things changed a bit recently. Apple Inc. is still among the top 10, but it isn’t one of the most popular 5 stocks. Fourth quarter was marked by two major events that affected the stock market. In November, Donald Trump won the presidential election, leading to a rally as investors anticipated a more favorable business environment due to lower regulations. A month later, the Federal Reserve hiked the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to between 0.50% and 0.75%, which was taken as a sign of optimism about the U.S. economy. In addition, the Fed promised three more increases in 2017, as the central bank is confident in the strength of the labor market and believes that the inflation is closer to reaching the targets


Image result for Charter Communications, Inc.Let’s start from the bottom. On the 10th spot we have Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR), in which 103 funds tracked by us amassed shares worth $17.29 billion heading into 2017. During the fourth quarter, the stock registered a decline in popularity, as the number of funds long the stock declined by eight, while the aggregate value of holdings fell by $1.17 billion. Charter’s stock has gained over 13% since the beginning of the year, mainly due to a boost in January amid news that Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ) might be interested in acquiring Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR). The company also reported better-than-expected financial results with EPS of $1.67 per share on revenue of $10.28 billion, versus estimates of $1.00 and $10.23 billion, respectively. However, subscribers growth figures lagged as Charter is integrating Time Warner Cable’s business it acquired last year. Among the largest shareholders of Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR) is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, which owns 9.44 million shares as of the end of 2016.

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As stated earlier, financial stocks saw funds piling into them between October and December. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) saw 110 funds long its stock at the end of December, versus 98 funds a quarter earlier. Consequently, the aggregate value of these funds’ positions jumped to $10.69 billion from $7.61 billion. Among the investors that added the stock to their equity portfolio is Dan Loeb‘s Third Point, which reported a new stake containing 5.25 million shares in its latest 13F filing. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)’s shares surged by nearly 37% since the end of the third quarter of 2016, with the majority of the gains coming following the November election. With the Fed expressing confidence in the U.S. economy and planning to further increase interest rates this year and Trump promising to cut corporate tax rate, JPMorgan and other banks are expected to provide higher profits. According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) could save around $3.0 billion and boost its net income by 14% per year if the tax rate is cut to 15% from 35% and deductions are disallowed.


Image result for Visa IncOn the other hand, the number of funds from our database bullish on Visa Inc (NYSE:V) declined by four to 110, while the total value of their holdings declined slightly to $10.67 billion. Seeing as the stock has advanced by over 10% year-to-date and the company posting better-than-expected results earlier this month with fiscal first-quarter EPS of $0.86 and revenue of $4.46 billion topping the consensus estimates by $0.08 and $170 million respectively, it may be the case that some investors rushed to the exits too soon. Among the investors bullish on Visa Inc (NYSE:V) are Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management, Berkshire Hathaway, and Ken Griffin’s Citadel Investment Group.


Image result for Apple IncAfter being the star company of many hedge funds, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) saw a drop in popularity in the last three months of 2016. At the end of December, 113 funds amassed shares of the company, versus 145 funds a quarter earlier. However, the value of these funds positions advanced to $16.54 billion from $16.22 billion, but a significant contribution to this figure is Berkshire Hathaway’s position, which was boosted by around 280% to 57.36 million shares worth $6.64 billion (40% of the aggregate amount). Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s stock is 17% in the green year-to-date as investors were upbeat about the company’s financial results and iPhone sales in the holiday company. Moreover, with the general optimism surrounding the U.S. economy, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is likely to follow the cycle.


Image result for Citigroup IncCitigroup Inc (NYSE:C) saw the number of institutional investors long its stock advance by 17 during the fourth quarter, while the aggregate value of their stakes jumped by $1.43 billion to $10.14 billion. Aside from the aforementioned interest rates hikes, the recent announcement that Trump wants to repeal the Dodd-Frank act is also expected to benefit big banks. However, a tax rate cut would result in less savings for Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) compared to other big banks, as it generates more earnings outside the U.S., Bloomberg added. Edgar Wachenheim‘s Greenhaven Associates held some 11.35 million shares of Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) at the end of December.

Image result for Amazon.com, Inc.
While the majority of the top five most popular stocks among hedge funds are represented by tech companies, they generally saw a drop in the number of investors holding shares. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) saw 123 funds tracked by us holding around $14.44 billion worth of stock heading into 2017, which is significantly lower compared to 150 funds with stakes worth $20.79 billion at the end of September. Among these funds, Fisher Asset Management was the largest shareholder with a 2.0 million-share stake. The strong returns registered by big tech companies’ stocks in the recent past it’s widely discussed which company will reach the $1.0 trillion valuation sooner, with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) being one of the favorites. as the company has a cloud business growing at a fast pace and has recently entered into the Internet of Things segment and is planning to get into the logistics business.


Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Warren Buffett loves cheap airline stocks, which could get a boost from Trump

Airlines already have low valuations, so if tax rates fall, they could be even more attractive


President Donald Trump’s corporate tax plan could increase the profitability of airlines, which would enrich Warren Buffett and other airline investors.

The decision by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway to load up on Apple shares is making big news. But the billionaire investor also put money in four airline stocks.
A tailwind for airlines is that their high income tax rates might fall dramatically if President Donald Trump succeeds in cutting corporate tax rates.
In the fourth quarter, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B, -0.05%  built a new stake of 43.2 million shares in Southwest Airlines Co. LUV, +3.58% while also adding to its holdings of American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, +2.08% Delta Air Lines Inc.DAL, +2.63%  and United Continental Holdings Inc. UAL, +2.73% Most airlines are expected by analysts to post declining profits in 2017 as fuel prices rise. Industry profits are expected to be healthy in 2018, with those four airlines expected to generate double-digit increases in earnings per share.
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Tax rates
FactSet estimates that the average effective income tax rate over the past 12 reported months for S&P 500 SPX, +0.50%   member companies was 26.4%. The highest U.S. corporate tax rate is 35%, and, of course, many companies pay state and local income taxes as well. It is reasonable to argue that a reduction in the federal corporate tax rate will help some companies more than others, and airlines might be among the biggest beneficiaries.

 
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We decided to broaden our review by looking at the nine airlines included in the S&P 1500 Composite Index, which is made up of the S&P 500, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index MID, +0.29%  and the S&P Small-Cap 600 Index SML, +0.55%
Here they are, in alphabetical order, with their effective income tax rates:
AirlineTickerEffective income tax rate - 2016*
Alaska Air Group Inc.ALK, +0.69%39.48%
Allegiant Travel Co.ALGT, +0.00%36.53%
American Airlines Group Inc.AAL, +2.08%37.75%
Delta Air Lines Inc.DAL, +2.63%34.10%
Hawaiian Holdings Inc.HA, +0.10%37.95%
JetBlue Airways Corp.JBLU, +0.45%37.58%
SkyWest Inc.SKYW, +3.57%39.37%
Southwest Airlines Co.LUV, +3.58%36.74%
United Continental Holdings Inc.UAL, +2.73%40.74%
Source: FactSet
(For SkyWest Inc. SKYW, +3.57% we are showing the effective income tax rate for 2015, because the company posted an operating loss for 2016.)
Trump has pledged to lower the corporate tax rate to 15%. He said Feb. 9 that his administration would be “announcing something I would say over the next two or three weeks” on corporate taxes that “will be phenomenal” for businesses.
Valuation
The S&P 1500 trades for 16.2 times consensus 2018 earnings estimates, according to FactSet, while the industrial sector of the index (which includes the airlines) trades for 16.8 times consensus 2018 estimates. Here’s how the airlines stack up, by this measure, and how much analysts expect their earnings to grow in 2018:
AirlineTickerConsensus EPS estimate - 2017Consensus EPS estimate - 2018Expected EPS growth - 2018Closing price - Feb. 14Price/ consensus 2018 EPS estimate
Alaska Air Group Inc.ALK,+0.69%$7.89$8.619%$96.3011.2
Allegiant Travel Co.ALGT,+0.00%$10.96$12.4914%$174.8514.0
American Airlines Group Inc.AAL,+2.08%$4.61$5.3516%$46.578.7
Delta Air Lines Inc.DAL,+2.63%$5.23$5.7911%$49.868.6
Hawaiian Holdings Inc.HA,+0.10%$4.83$5.024%$51.1010.2
JetBlue Airways Corp.JBLU,+0.45%$1.82$2.0110%$19.669.8
SkyWest Inc.SKYW,+3.57%$3.09$3.4712%$35.0510.1
Southwest Airlines Co.LUV,+3.58%$3.89$4.6820%$55.3111.8
United Continental Holdings Inc.UAL,+2.73%$6.77$8.1120%$73.749.1
Source: FactSet
It appears from these low forward price-to-earnings ratios that many investors still don’t trust airlines, but the industry has been stable in recent years, as it has found new ways to make money and avoid cutthroat price competition, following decades of mergers, bankruptcies and other disruptions.
Erick Ormsby, the founder of Alcosta Capital Management, particularly favors Southwest Airlines because of the prospect that its high tax rate will fall, as well as 20% expected EPS increase in 2018 and its overall growth trajectory.
“You have a stable environment, relatively speaking, for an airline that is trading at 12 times earnings,” he said in an interview Feb. 14.
By Philip Van Doorn

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-loves-cheap-airline-stocks-which-could-get-a-boost-from-trump-2017-02-15