NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- When the Nasdaq Composite Index last hit 5,000 back in 2000, stocks crashed soon after, but one strategist said history won't repeat itself this time around.
Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, said that a key difference between now and 2000 is in the level of earnings of companies on the Nasdaq index.
"If you go back to 2000, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio was around 100, and today it's closer to about 23," Frederick said. "While these companies have pushed the Nasdaq to a level we haven't seen in a long time, they're doing it through actual profits, rather than speculation."
Even with the Nasdaq's volatility reminiscent of 15 years ago and with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirting with record highs, Frederick still thinks there's room for equities to go higher.
"The trailing 12 months' price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is around 20, which is a little bit heavy, but not nearly as high as it has often been at times before we see a market pullback, so corporate earnings are quite good," he said.
Frederick said companies will probably exceed already optimistic earnings estimates, which bodes well for stocks.
Of the 483 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings through Feb. 27, the blended growth rate stands at 3.7%, compared with the 1.7% growth analysts forecast at the end of 2014, data from FactSet shows.
As for sectors, Frederick remains bullish on technology. "This has been one that's been outperforming for several years," he said. "There continues to be a lot of innovation in technology and a lot of opportunity going forward."
Frederick said Schwab downgraded the consumer-discretionary sector, as people haven't been spending the money saved from lower gas prices.
Even with the Nasdaq's volatility reminiscent of 15 years ago and with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirting with record highs, Frederick still thinks there's room for equities to go higher.
"The trailing 12 months' price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is around 20, which is a little bit heavy, but not nearly as high as it has often been at times before we see a market pullback, so corporate earnings are quite good," he said.
Frederick said companies will probably exceed already optimistic earnings estimates, which bodes well for stocks.
Of the 483 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings through Feb. 27, the blended growth rate stands at 3.7%, compared with the 1.7% growth analysts forecast at the end of 2014, data from FactSet shows.
As for sectors, Frederick remains bullish on technology. "This has been one that's been outperforming for several years," he said. "There continues to be a lot of innovation in technology and a lot of opportunity going forward."
Frederick said Schwab downgraded the consumer-discretionary sector, as people haven't been spending the money saved from lower gas prices.
"There may be a plateau period for some time," Frederick said.
Recent data support this sentiment. Personal income for January rose 0.3%, but personal-consumption expenditures fell 0.2% during the month, the Commerce Department said on Monday.
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Source:http://www.thestreet.com/story/13064050/1/nasdaq-rally-stems-from-actual-profits-not-speculation-schwab-strategist.html?kval=do
Source:http://www.thestreet.com/story/13064050/1/nasdaq-rally-stems-from-actual-profits-not-speculation-schwab-strategist.html?kval=do
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