Trying to handicap the next big biotech winner can be tricky. My current favorites include Synergy Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: SGYP) and Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq:THLD). They have compelling drugs in development and possess impressive potential catalysts in 2015.
Outside of biotech, stocks with 100% potential upside are even trickier to spot. I spent the holidays looking at a wide range of stocks that could deliver such a return. Many candidates, as it turns out, also carry too much risk.
Of course predicting triple-digit gains is more of a guidepost than a specific prediction. When I looked at three 100% potential gainers, in September 2013, only Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) rose that much (128%), while Merge Healthcare, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRGE) rose 39% and Lionbridge Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: LIOX) rose 53%. In other words, a basket approach would have served you well.
Instead, I like to focus on stocks with big upside, but theoretically limited downside. Such stocks are risky -- and can crater -- but have assets or cash flow in place that likely precludes that from happening. Here are three that stand out as they possess potentially huge upside in the year ahead.
I.D. Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq: IDSY)
Nearly a decade ago, this provider of wireless tracking systems for forklifts, rental cars and other vehicles, held a great deal of promise. Management secured a broad number of impressive customer wins, including the U.S. Postal Service, Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAR) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT). Despite the contracts, IDSY's tracking systems were installed in only a fraction of the their client's vehicles, not their entire fleet. Since then, subsequent new customer signings have become less frequent. Sales have been stuck in the $45-to-$50 million range in the past 3-to-4 years and shares have also moved sideways.
Nearly a decade ago, this provider of wireless tracking systems for forklifts, rental cars and other vehicles, held a great deal of promise. Management secured a broad number of impressive customer wins, including the U.S. Postal Service, Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAR) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT). Despite the contracts, IDSY's tracking systems were installed in only a fraction of the their client's vehicles, not their entire fleet. Since then, subsequent new customer signings have become less frequent. Sales have been stuck in the $45-to-$50 million range in the past 3-to-4 years and shares have also moved sideways.
Yet a breakout may finally be at hand. In recent months, the company signed new or renewed contracts with Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), The Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG), Knight Transportation, Inc. (NYSE: KNX), an unnamed global airline and others. The upturn in orders is the result of a broad re-vamp of the company's core technology platform, called "I.D. Systems 2.0."
The company recently hired a seasoned executive from Qualcomm, Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM) to be its Chief Operating Officer. His "35 years of experience in end-to-end technology sales and prior contributions to making Qualcomm's Omnitrax division a global leader in over-the-road fleet management are directly applicable to our market position and strategic goals," noted CEO Ken Ehrman on a recent quarterly conference call.
Analysts expect revenue to start growing at a double-digit pace in 2015 and 2016, and this long-forgotten stock appears poised to pop back up on the radars of growth-oriented investors. Lake Street Capital predicts that "I.D. Systems is fast approaching an inflection point where revenue reaccelerates and the business crosses into profitability." Meanwhile, shares trade for around 1.5 times projected 2015 revenues, which is half that of its peer group. Look for that gap too close if I.D. Systems can once again prove itself to be a growth stock.
BorderFree, Inc. (Nasdaq: BRDR)
Roughly six months ago, many U.S. companies began to really feel the slowing economic environment in Europe, Japan and China, which collectively account for the bulk of our exports. Many businesses that had been thinking of establishing a deeper global sales presence decided to slow those expansion plans.
Roughly six months ago, many U.S. companies began to really feel the slowing economic environment in Europe, Japan and China, which collectively account for the bulk of our exports. Many businesses that had been thinking of establishing a deeper global sales presence decided to slow those expansion plans.
This has been a big disappointment for BorderFree, which helps companies establish and operate localized web portals. The company's developers build out many retailers' foreign e-commerce platforms and also handle many customs, order fulfillment and other trade processes.
The impact on the top-line has been clear. The company, which had seen sales surge from under $40 million in 2011 to around $125 million in 2014, is now expected to boost sales just 15% in 2015 (to around $145 million). Shares, which had been trading above $20 in the early days after the March 2014 IPO, now trade below $8. Roughly half of its $250 market value is reflected in its net cash position.
Yet it's important to remember that the company's total addressable market opportunity has barely been scratched. Sure, the dollar is on steroids right now, making U.S.-branded goods less appealing, but such rapid currency swings eventually reverse themselves. And slumping trade partners won't remain in a funk indefinitely. Over the course of 2015, look for the cloud to slowly lift over this highly appealing business model and for shares to start making a move toward the post-IPO highs.
NeoNode, Inc. (Nasdaq: NEON)
This provider of touch-screen technology saw its shares approach $8 in March 2014 as investors buzzed about the potential of large contracts with auto suppliers. Such contracts never materialized, and shares eventually drifted below $2.
This provider of touch-screen technology saw its shares approach $8 in March 2014 as investors buzzed about the potential of large contracts with auto suppliers. Such contracts never materialized, and shares eventually drifted below $2.
The two companies are developing a technology that will enable people to drive a car without actually touching the steering wheel. That technology may or may not come to be a blockbuster in the auto field, but NeoNode is working with a range of other companies in other industries to develop what it calls "touchless touch" sensing.
Sales are expected to start rising at a rapid clip in 2015, although investors should understand that this is a highly speculative stock, as young companies like this often take longer than expected to start gaining solid sales traction. Indeed, of the three companies profiled here, this is the only with a lot of downside, but is also has even more upside potential than the other companies profiled.
Risks To Consider: These are micro-caps, which tend to fall out of favor when investors seek the safety of large caps. That's happening right now, and these high-beta stocks could continue to lag until the market stabilizes.
Action To Take --> With risk comes reward. All three of these companies are facing sizable market opportunities and will pop up on many radars if they can start to deliver double-digit growth rates. (In the case of BorderFree, it is a matter of maintaining such growth.) All three of these stocks possess massive upside potential, yet the speculative nature of their business models means you need to more deeply research their prospects than you would a typical large-cap stock.
While I.D. Systems is likely to have a positive message when Q4 results are released, BorderFree and NeoNode don't have any near-term catalysts that will likely emerge on the quarterly announcement. As a result, the wise path is to study these firms now and be prepared to build a position once Q4 results have been released.
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