A little over a month ago in StreetAuthority Daily, I talked about how the U.S. has been stuck in a spendthrift, "Frugal Nation" mentality.
As I said then:
"Right now, the economic outlook is muddled at best, as it has been for much of the past five years since the financial crisis. Depressed wages and a large amount of people collecting unemployment means there just isn't enough money around for most consumers to spend lavishly."
I maintain that this consumer "money hoarding" behavior isn't going away anytime soon. And recent newsfrom the Federal Reserve confirms this -- noting that banks have put away close to $2.8 trillion in reserves and households are sitting on $2.15 trillion in savings -- a 50% increase over the past five years.
The Fed report goes on to explain that because people are sitting on cash, rather than spending it, the "velocity of money" in the economy has slowed, which in turn has led to relatively low inflation and a slow-growth economy.
As two leading economists from the St. Louis Fed explained:
"Thus, it is precisely the sharp decline in [monetary] velocity that has offset the sharp increase in money supply, leading to the almost no change in nominal GDP."
All of this is just a fancy way of saying that a Frugal Nation economy breeds more frugality. It's a vicious cycle that may not subside until a major economic breakthrough comes our way.
But don't let that fool you into thinking that there are no gains to be had in this market. As I said when I last mentioned the Frugal Nation phenomenon, there are plenty of profit opportunities to take advantage of.
For example, by seeking out "industry disrupters" that beat competitors by undercutting prices, one of our experts was able to find stocks like Costco (Nasdaq: COST), which made her subscribers a 39% return in less than two years, as well as Sally Beauty (NYSE: SBH), which landed readers a 58% return in just eight months.
If you're looking for the next stock that could see a double-digit return in the near future from the Frugal Nation trend, another one of our experts, Nathan Slaughter, has spotted a company that fits the bill nicely.
Nathan recommended AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) back in the June issue of his growth and income newsletter, Total Yield. As he said then:
"[AutoZone] owns a nationwide chain of more than 5,000 superstores that are well-stocked with almost everything imaginable for routine car maintenance or repair...The do-it-yourself crowd spent approximately $47 billion fixing up their cars last year... [I expect] the industry will generate a little over $50 billion in revenues in 2014. And AutoZone will capture more than many of its smaller rivals combined.AutoZone has emerged as the dominant leader, selling 50% more belts, batteries and hoses than its next closest competitor. And profits have been racing more than three times faster than sales. Earnings have climbed 17.7% annually over the past decade --with growth accelerating to 22.6% over the past five years."
The fact that AutoZone has actually seen its earnings growth accelerate at a rapid, 22% per-year clip over the past five years while the rest of the economy has been sluggish is a testament to its viability in all types of markets.
But that's just the tip of the iceberg. While AutoZone doesn't pay a dividend, the company exercises some of the most shareholder-friendly practices we've ever seen. And this has led to impressive share gains over the past decade. Nathan expanded on this point in his issue:
"[AutoZone] is one of the most zealous advocates of stock buybacks I've ever seen. The company first made a commitment to start investing in share repurchases back in 1998. To say that it has upheld that commitment would be a supreme understatement.The firm posts a running tally of its buyback expenditures and share totals with each quarterly report -- which says a lot about its mindset. In 1998, it had 169.1 million shares. Since then, it has systematically retired 136.5 million, leaving just 32.6 million.[Most companies] truly dedicated to making a real difference [and raising share value] may have reduced their outstanding shares by 10% to 20% over the past decade.But [AutoZone] has gone above and beyond -- shrinking its share count by an incredible 80%.So for every 5 shares that had a claim on the company's assets and profits back then, there is now just 1 remaining. Logic says that the value of that one share should be at least five times greater. And that's if the underlying business looks the same. But it doesn't -- annual profits have nearly doubled over the past decade from $566 million to more than $1.0 billion...
No wonder earnings per share have soared to $30.27 today from $6.66 in 2004."
You can see how massive shareholder buybacks and rapidly growing annual profits -- even during a market downturn -- have translated to incredible gains over the past decade in the chart below.
For those looking at this chart thinking they've missed their chance to profit from this Buyback King, think again. As Nathan points out, there's plenty more rocket fuel the company has to add to boost these gains even further in the years ahead:
"Indeed the market has responded. The stock has quintupled from less than $100 per share back [in 2004] to over $500 today. Buybacks have been the fuel that has propelled this run -- and the tank isn't empty. In fact, there is more than $300 million remaining on the current authorization."
AutoZone's ability to position itself to thrive in a Frugal Nation environment and dominate its competition has made it a must-own investment over the past decade. And more buybacks in the future could make it a must-own stock over the next one.
If AutoZone's 600% gain over the past decade says anything, it shows how a powerful combination of strong profit growth coupled with massive share buybacks can lead to some of the best stock returns on Earth.
No comments:
Post a Comment