There are nine stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index, including computer storage firm Seagate Technology (STX), cruiseline Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and financial planning firm Ameriprise Financial (AMP), that have been the standout performers during the past five fall seasons. Each of these stocks have beaten the S&P 500 each fall the past five years and delivered 16% or greater average gains during the season, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from S&P Capital IQ.
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Investors are headed into this fall understandably nervous. The S&P 500 ended the summer on a rough note and the U.S. market benchmark index is again flirting with a correction, down 9.4% from its all-time high. Additionally, stocks soon are headed into the dreaded month of October which has been the period of some scary declines in the past.
But fall isn't a season that must be feared. The S&P 500 has actually risen 5.8% on average during the past five falls. And stocks have been positive in each of the past five falls -- with one exception -- the fall of 2012 when the S&P 500 dropped 2.1%.
Investors, though, have found some pretty attractive gains during the month. The best performer during the fall the past five years has been hard drive and storage maker Seagate Technology. The stock has rocketed 25.5% on average the past five fall seasons. A fall bounce would be very welcome with investors, who have been suffering with this stock all year. Shares of Seagate are down 34% so far in 2015 as investors brace for a 37% decline in adjusted profit in the September quarter and a 15% drop in the fourth quarter, says S&P Capital IQ. But investors might want to get ahead of what's expected to be a 11% boost in adjusted quarterly profit in the first quarter of 2016. Interestingly, another computer storage maker, Western Digital (WDC) is also a big fall winner - gaining an average 19.9% in the past five falls.
Another fall standout is Royal Caribbean. The stock has set sail with an average 20.2% gain during the past five fall seasons - making it the second best S&P 500 stock during the period. Investors are perhaps jumping into the stock around the company's pivotal September quarter earnings release. Royal Caribbean is expected to get 57% of its adjusted profit this calendar year in the quarter ended in September.
Ameriprise Financial doesn't have much seasonality to its fundamentals because its earnings and profit are pretty steady from season to season. But the stock has been a solid performer in the fall, gaining an average 19.3% during the fall.
There's plenty of investors to worry about in the fall - especially in the first month of the season. But these stocks show there are still ways to rake in the gains - if you know where to look.
TOP S&P 500 STOCKS IN THE FALL
COMPANY, SYMBOL, AVERAGE GAIN PAST FIVE FALLS
Seagate Technology, STX, 25.5%
Royal Caribbean Cruises, RCL, 20.2%
Western Digital, WDC, 19.9%
Ameriprise Financial, AMP, 19.3%
Tesoro, TSO, 18.6%
Signet Jewelers, SIG, 18.4%
Robert Half, RHI, 17.4%
Wyndham Worldwide, WYN, 16.7%
FedEx, FDX, 16%
Sources: S&P Capital IQ, USA TODAY
S&P 500 companies that beat the market each of the past five falls and delivered average annual fall gains of 16% or more
By Matt Krantz
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