Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 30, 2015. (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)
It’s hard to disparage a stock market that has posted nine straight quarterly gains, the best stretch since a 14-quarter run that ended in mid-1998.
But now that the first quarter is in the books for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, which squeaked out a 0.4% gain despite wild price swings along the way, it’s time for investors to look ahead to the second quarter. Can the S&P 500 make it 10 straight quarters of gains? In general, how have stocks fared throughout history during the second quarter and, more specifically, which sectors of the market have turned in consistently solid performances?
On the question of whether the large-company stock index can post gains again in the second quarter, history says the odds are better than investors might think, Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, said in a client note.
“Only three other times since World War II has the S&P 500 witnessed at least nine straight quarters of price gains,” Stovall wrote. “Each of these prior times recorded price increases in their 10th quarter, with average gains of 8.1%.”
Second quarters have been profitable as well. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has recorded an average gain of 1.9% during the second quarter. “Performance was better during (pre-election) years, as the index gained an average 5.0% in the second quarter,” Stovall said.
The best sectors in the second-quarter since 1989 have been health care (up 3.5%, on average) and information technology, up 3.2%.
In late-morning trading today, the S&P 500 was down 10 points, or 0.5%, 2057.78.
Here’s a look back at the S&P 500’s gains in the past 9 quarters:
| S&P 500 | |
| Qtr. | % change |
| 1Q15 | 0.44% |
| 4Q14 | 4.39% |
| 3Q14 | 0.61% |
| 2Q14 | 4.69% |
| 1Q14 | 1.30% |
| 4Q13 | 9.92% |
| 3Q13 | 4.69% |
| 2Q13 | 2.36% |
| 1Q13 | 10.03% |
| 4Q12 | -1.01% |
| Source: USA Today | |
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