Sunday, March 22, 2015

Here’s Why We Changed Twitter’s Price Estimate To $49.30


Upside +1.77%
48.44
Market
49.30
Trefis

TWTR
Twitter

We recently changed our price estimate for Twitter‘s (NYSE:TWTR) stock from $39.10 to $49.30, reflecting a change of around 25%. The rapid rise in Twitter’s monetization was the key factor responsible for this updated valuation. It has been fueled by an increase in ad load levels, surge in the user base, the  roll-out of better and more targeted ads that derive higher pricing, as well as the monetization opportunity from the passive user base. In addition, we expect significant EBITDA margin expansion over our forecast period, owing to both operating leverage and the growing maturity in the business model. Finally, a decrease in capital expenditure as a percent of revenue in the long-run will lead to strong growth in free cash flows.
Our $49.3 price estimate for Twitter’s stock, represents near-5% upside to the current market price.

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