Yesterday, in response to a pause in the volatility that has been seen recently and in anticipation of a quiet week, I wrote a piece recommending that investors should be looking to dial down the risk in their portfolios. As a part of that I suggested a shift in emphasis, from growth to value. In an ideal world, of course, that is not a choice that you have to make; it should be possible to find stocks that offer value but have good growth prospects. In reality though, finding them is much easier said than done. There is, however, one stock that, for the last couple of years at least, has offered that combination.
Growth stocks are those where the assumption behind owning them is that the company will one day, hopefully soon, become huge. Most frequently they are relatively young, small companies in cutting edge industries such as tech or biotech. Many have never made money and investing is based on a belief that one day they will, and that when the profit starts rolling in the management will know what to do with it.The financial services industry loves to divide and label. We separate stocks by sector, and then sub-divide by industry. We group companies according to size: large, mid and small cap; even mega-cap and micro-cap. Then we divide them by something referred to as “style.” That is where the growth versus value divide comes in.
Sometimes, growth stocks don’t fit the small or young description. Tesla (TSLA) for example, may be new to the automotive industry,but at a market cap of around $25.5 billion, it is not by any means small.
Occasionally they are neither young nor small .
Amazon ( ) is frequently cited as the ultimate growth stock, but having gone public in 1997 it is positively ancient in the internet business, and a market cap of close to $174 billion puts it into the mega-cap category. In these cases, most people look at the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) to categorize the stock. Logically, if investors value the company at many times what it makes each year then significant growth is expected.
TSLA has a P/E of over 90, while AMZN’s price values the company at over 333x forecast earnings for the next twelve months, so that metric works in those cases, but in many it doesn’t. In many biotech companies, for example, profit is several years away. Buying those stocks is essentially a bet on approval and the rapid growth that would follow. In reality growth is more about management’s attitude than anything. Even today, as a well established, massive company, Google (GOOG )reinvests profits in R&D and acquisitions…they continue to pursue growth.
Value stocks are, logically enough, those that are cheap. That can mean many things, of course, but here a low P/E is a more reliable guide. If the average P/E for all of the 500 companies in the S&P is 20 for example, any company valued at less than 20x forward earnings can be considered relatively cheap. Of course it isn’t quite that simple. Some sectors industries traditionally have lower P/Es than others. In that case, value becomes relative to industry peers.
In most cases, companies whose stock is classed as value return a significant portion of profits to the shareholders in the form of dividends. That, after all, is why we wish to own companies, to participate in their profits. Of course, some pay a smaller dividend and still aggressively pursue revenue growth, so the simple existence of a dividend is not a definition of a value stock.
So, in searching for that elusive stock that offers both growth and value, we are looking for a many faceted company. They have to have the prospect of massive earnings growth and that must be a priority of management. At the same time, though, they should ideally pay a decent dividend and be priced at a discount compared to their sector or industry. There is one company that offers all of that, and who it is should come as no great surprise.
Apple (AAPL) has forecast earnings growth of 15 percent for next year, according to VectorVest. Considering that their product line refreshes every two years and we just saw the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, that is decent growth. Typically AAPL beats expectations, and when a product line is updated, those beats can be spectacular, as with last quarter’s 50% YoY growth in earnings. They are not standing still, though. Rumors abound as to Apple’s next move. The wearables market is next, but many maintain that entering the auto business in some way, by a buyout of Tesla even, is a possibility. In short, despite some degree of maturity and being a colossal company, AAPL is still growing and, maybe more importantly, pursuing growth aggressively.
Yet, by every metric, AAPL is still a phenomenal value stock. However you classify the company it trades at a discount to peers. Electronics companies have an average forward P/E of 44, computer companies of 23, and specialty retailers of over 20. Apple’s current price equates to around 15.5x earnings estimates that they habitually beat. It is, quite simply, dirt cheap.
It cannot be said enough times. Stock that offers tremendous value and yet has great growth potential is a very rare thing. Even at these levels that is exactly what AAPL is, and it really should be a part of every investors portfolio.
By Martin Tillier,
Source:http://www.nasdaq.com/article/on-growth-and-value-one-stock-that-offers-both-cm445670
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