Up 56% From Its IPO -- This Company Still Has Room To Run

After cratering during the recession, the number of U.S. initial public offerings has jumped dramatically. 

That's especially true in the past couple years, as the following table illustrates.

Year	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
# of IPOs	192	196	213	31	63	154	125	128	222	211

Source:IPO ETF manager Renaissance Capital. Yearly breakdown based on IPO pricing date -- excludes SPACs, closed-end funds and trusts.

What the numbers don't reveal, though, is not every IPO has been warmly greeted. 

For instance, investors clearly weren't excited about the late-2012 debut of a leading plastics manufacturer. In this case, the initial release called for 29.4 million shares at $16 per share, which was at the low end of the projected range of $16-to-$18. 

Even worse, the stock only opened a little above $15 when trading began on October 4, 2012. And within four days, the price sank as low as $13.48 -- nearly a 16% drop from the IPO price. 

Above-average debt was a key reason for the market's harsh welcome of Berry Plastics Group, Inc. (NYSE: BERY ) , which makes thermoform drinking cups, blow-molded bottles and many other types of rigid and flexible plastic packaging and containers for consumer products. At IPO time, Berry carried net debt of $4.1 billion, around twice that of many competitors. 

However, more investors may wish they'd given the stock a chance considering its recent performance. Shares now trade around $25, good for 56% gain from the IPO price.

This isn't it for Berry, though. The company has a strong long-term growth story, in my opinion, and I'm confident patient shareholders will be well-rewarded in coming years. 

For one thing, Berry's whittling down debt, most of which is long-term and therefore not an imminent threat -- short-term debt totals only $71 million. Still, management has made long-term debt a priority, cutting it by 15% since 2011 from about $4.6 billion to less than $3.9 billion now. 

This has been -- and should remain -- possible because of a fast-rising bottom line. Indeed, earnings have soared from losses of $1.34 and $3.55 a share in 2010 and 2011, respectively, to the current $0.49-a-share profit. What's more, analysts see earnings per share of $1.34 this year and $1.57 in 2015, as well as a growth rate averaging 15% annually for the next five years. 

Berry has been slashing interest expenses, too. In May 2013, for example, it replaced $1.4 billion of high-interest debt maturing in 2014, 2015 and 2016 with a much lower-cost loan due in 2020. The move should cut interest payments by about $48 million a year, management estimates. 

The firm has also done a good job of holding the line on operating costs, which have stayed in the $426-to-$492 million range for the past few years. And soon they should begin substantially falling as Berry implements a new program of plant consolidations, more efficient equipment use and workforce cuts -- measures that will save about $27 million a year, management says. 

All this has translated to rising free cash flow, now up to $305 million a year from $167 million in 2011. Berry's balance sheet shows $142 million in cash, more than three times the $42 million the firm held in 2011. So I'm confident it'll be able to keep paying down debt while making capital investments necessary for future growth. 

Among Berry's latest investments was buying a 75% stake in a leading Chinese plastic packaging business, Qingdao P&B Co. The purchase, announced in early January, gives the firm a foothold in Asian markets and is a major step toward much-needed global expansion. Berry still generates most of its revenue domestically. 

The acquisition quickly began bolstering business, facilitating a 5% year-over-year rise in fiscal Q2 net sales. According to management, two-thirds of fiscal Q3's 6% year-over-year increase was attributable to two foreign acquisitions: Qingdao P&B and a pharmaceutical container business purchased in June from London, England-based Rexam Healthcare ( REXMY ). 

On the other hand, U.S. growth hasn't been very robust lately. But domestic business could soon get a boost from Berry's new extra-durable, fully recyclable Versalite hot and cold beverage cup, which is being considered by Dunkin' Brands (Nasdaq: DNKN ), Subway and other major plastic cup users. Assuming Versalite is widely adopted -- and testing so far suggests consumers prefer it to conventional cups -- Berry says demand could be three billion units a year. 

If that's the case and per-cup earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) hits $0.02-to-$0.03 as analysts at ABE Capital Management project, Versalite could add $60-to-$90 million of EBITDA per year. That's a 9%-to-14% jump from current EBITDA of $657 million. From there, even greater gains are possible if Versalite catches on internationally. 

Risks to Consider: Berry must constantly contend with rising product input costs. For example, the price of polyethylene has risen 25% in recent quarters. 

Action to Take --> Investors were right to be concerned about the level of debt at Berry Plastics, but those who wrote the firm off because of it missed out on a market-beating stock. It's not too late to get in, though. The firm is taming its debt and has plenty more growth potential ahead, perhaps even greater than what analysts are estimating. But even with their projections, the stock has at least 90% upside during the next five years.

By StreetAuthority,  October 08, 2014, 04:18:01 PM EDT

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